ARTICLES

                                        The Basics

      A brief and very basic primer on sports betting may be helpful to some of you.

      Football and basketball are generally played with a pointspread with the minus sign in front of the favored team. For example, Cinn Bengals -3 vs Pitt Steelers meaning Cinn is a 3 point favorite over the Steelers. If you played Cinn and they won by more than a field goal, you win. If they win by less than 3 or lose straight up, you lose and if they win by exactly 3, you have a push and your entire bet is simply refunded. Their opposition, Pitt; would always be listed as +3 as the underdog in this case. Normally, the favorite and the underdog both require you to lay the same price on the points, the standard being -110 meaning you put up $110 to win $100. A winner gets your bet back plus the winnings and a loser forfeits the entire bet.

      Baseball and hockey are generally played on the money line with no pointspread meaning your team only has to win the game. This confuses most novice sports bettors but it's very simple. For example, Cle -130 simply means you lay $130 to win $100. If their opponent is the Yankees, they would be listed at +120 simply meaning you are laying only $100 to win $120. Of course there are several variations such as the run line which I have covered below. In any sport, your original bet is always given back to you along with your winnings.

      I could devote several pages to the various aspects and options involved but the above gives you the basic understanding of what all those numbers really mean.

                                                                               Betting Rules

      Any good company or organization has rules that establish set procedures and policies. You should approach sports betting in the same mindset. Your success in this very difficult endeavor depends largely on this principle.

      I have several absolute rules that I have established over the years and I do not deviate from any of them. Some of my personal rules include never laying a price of -150 or higher and never playing double digit NFL favorites. Whatever you find is absolutely essential to you, stay with it and do not make exceptions.

      Sit down and make a list of your rules. Once you have established your rules, write them down and make them an absolute facet of your handicapping. You'll find your decision making comes easier.

                                                                                Emotional Factors

      How many times have you heard on ESPN or elsewhere about a key player making a negative remark or guaranteeing a victory against their opponent before the big game? The media always blows these things up and invariably say the remarks will have a negative outcome for the team who's player shot off his mouth. I do not put too much stock into this concept. While it makes for great SportsCenter content, it does not necessarily affect the outcome of the game. I believe you must consider these things only as a factor as you would any meaningful stat but don't put too much into it as the following example shows.

      Before the 2003 Fiesta Bowl national championship game, OSU's star running back, Maurice Clarett; wanted to attend a funeral of a good friend in Cleveland. The team was already in Arizona and they refused to let him leave. Of course, the media had a field day with this and all the talk centered around Clarett not being focused for the game and the possible negative effect this might have. The result of all of this was Clarett played an excellent game and OSU won the national championship.

      Of course, certain intangibles seem to have great significance. For example, Germany to win the 2006 World Cup which was played in Germany. I bought a future ticket before the tournament on Germany to do just that at +789. They made it to the semifinals before losing, unfortunately for me; but common sense told me an already world class team getting almost 8-1 was a bargain playing in their own country in the biggest sporting event in the world. Regardless of the outcome, the host country in an event such as this was a tremendous overlay.

      Just don't get too excited or carried away with all the hype the next time the star quarterback guarantees the win.

                                                                               Baseball Run Lines

      Converting baseball moneyline favorites playing them laying the run and a half or commonly known as the run line is an exercise that can be a risky and profitable alternative at the same time. This takes into account only even money or plus priced run lines. I do not recommend playing minus priced run lines.    

      For those that need some clarification or explanation, a run line simply means you are giving up 1 1/2 runs on a favorite. The team must win by at least 2 runs. I have always said there are 2 ways to win on the run line so to speak, namely; you win more at the plus price and you loss much less on a straight up loss. If Team A is a -150 favorite and losses, you have lost the entire $150 betting the money line. On the run line, you only lose $100. A typical run line will go similar to this: Team A -150 ov Team B (you lay $150 to win $100 if Team A simply wins). Team A -1 1/2 now becomes around +130 (you lay $100 to win $130 if Team A wins by 2 or more runs). Instead of playing high priced favorites, consider staying off the game altogether or playing the run line. My general rule is just play the money line up to -149 and stay off any game at -150 or higher. The run line is an option that is wise at times but a consideration best left up to each individual.  

      On the other hand, taking the run line on an underdog being the exact reverse of the above will convert that dog into a fairly substantial favorite most of the time. I WILL NEVER recommend doing this. I am surprised by the number of so called respected handicappers that advocate taking the run and a half. In my opinion, it is absurd and a total profit killer to convert a live underdog into a favorite simply to protect the possibility of a 1 run loss.

                                                                                Pointspreads vs Money Lines

      This applies in particular to football where we are talking about maximizing profit. That is, consider taking low pointspread underdogs on the money line instead of taking the points if you feel the dog has a good chance of winning the game outright. The result is the same as with baseball run lines in that the payoffs are significantly higher and you are not laying any minus juice in return for getting the points. For example, Team A is a 3 point underdog. By taking the 3 points you will have to pay -110 or lower using certain outlets but you will usually lay a minus price regardless. By taking that same team simply to win the game, you should be able to easily get +125 to +135 or perhaps a little higher depending on a variety of circumstances. In the NFL, roughly 80% of all games involve the winning team also covering the spread whether they be favorites or underdogs. Of course, the higher the pointspread, the less likely the underdog will win straight up. However, we are back to the same principle as we have with baseball run lines; sure you will lose several games in which for example the 4 point underdog losses the game by 3 points but, in my opinion; you more than make it up by playing those underdogs on the money line when they win the game. The key to this concept is not to play too many substantial money line underdogs. Another important consideration is the matchup. Very evenly matched teams may be decided by a field goal from either side so taking the points in this type of situation may be the better option.  However, I would recommend you consider not taking 2.5 points or lower but playing the underdog on the money line in this situation. The most key number in the NFL is 3. Approximately 15-16% of all games end up with 3 as the winning point differential so the chances of the dog losing by just 1 or 2 points is minimal. Laying the juice on the dog in this spot does not make much sense. You might as well take the slight plus price.

      Of course, the decision is best left to each of you but I would urge you to seriously consider the above.

      DO NOT play favorites on the money line. It's a bad bet for the same reasons. Remember, the majority of favorites who win the game also cover the spread so why lay the extra price?